Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation

Kenneth D. Lawrence; Dinesh R. Pai; Sheila M. Lawrence

doi:10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006006

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Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

ISSN: 1477-4070
Series editor(s): Professor Kenneth D. Lawrence

Subject Area: Management Science/Management Studies

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Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation

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Title:	Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation
Author(s):	Kenneth D. Lawrence, Dinesh R. Pai, Sheila M. Lawrence
Volume:	6 Editor(s): Kenneth D. Lawrence, Ronald K. Klimberg ISBN: 978-1-84855-548-8 eISBN: 978-1-84855-549-5
Citation:	Kenneth D. Lawrence, Dinesh R. Pai, Sheila M. Lawrence (2009), Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation, in Kenneth D. Lawrence, Ronald K. Klimberg (ed.) 6 (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Volume 6), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.81-91
DOI:	10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006006 (Permanent URL)
Publisher:	Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Article type:	Chapter Item
Abstract:	Forecasting sales for an innovation before the product's introduction is a necessary but difficult task. Forecasting is a crucial analytic tool when assessing the business case for internal or external investments in new technologies. For early stage investments or internal business cases for new products, it is essential to have some understanding of the likely diffusion of the technology. Diffusion of innovation models are important tools for effectively assessing the merits of investing in technologies that are new or novel and do not have prima facie, predictable patterns of user uptake. Most new product forecasting models require the estimation of parameters for use in the models. In this chapter, we evaluate three techniques to determine the parameters of the Bass diffusion model by using an example of a new movie.