Coping with strategic uncertainty: framework development and scenario derivation for a JV decision in the Russian truck industry

Across country and regional borders firms are faced with the question whether to address individual markets on a stand-alone basis or cooperatively. In order to support such strategic decisions, this paper aims to develop a decision framework accounting for the most relevant market dynamics affecting joint venture (JV) decisions, particularly in the truck industry. Moreover, the authors apply the framework to an expert Delphi and scenario approach to back a Western original equipment manufacturers (OEM’s) JV decision in the truck industry in Russia. Based on country-specific projections structured along the globally applicable decision framework, the authors serve executives’ individual information demand in an institutionally unique emerging market environment.

Online real-time expert Delphi study; scenario analysis; and expert workshops were used in this study.

Among other insights, the results predict hard times for Russian OEMs as they will likely face strong foreign competition, leading to decreased sales volumes and market shares. Although some experts doubt the survival of several Russian truck manufacturers, the Delphi sheds light on possible strategic responses, including consolidation, cooperation or focusing on new markets. Based on the Delphi results and an additional expert workshop, we draw multiple scenarios addressing, particularly, uncertain aspects of the industry’s development and their likely impact on the key stakeholder groups.

Although there are some studies following a similar methodological approach as that in this study (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010; Gnatzy and Moser, 2012), the authors break new ground in developing a JV-dedicated decision framework and applying it to a special emerging market industry setup.