Chapter 6 A single currency for ASEAN-5: An empirical study of economic convergence and symmetry

Abstract

Ng (2002), and Lim and McAleer (2003) explained that if the national economies are not converging, or if the responses of national economies to random shocks are asymmetric, the cost of premature monetary integration would be high. This chapter investigates the feasibility of adopting a single currency for ASEAN-5 countries. The research uses the Kalman Filter procedure to test the economic convergence among ASEAN-5 countries, relative to Japan and the US. In addition, the symmetry of underlying structural shocks is also examined by applying a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The research findings showed that Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand (ASEAN-3) appear to be relatively suitable for forming an Optimum Currency Area. However, the results did not show significance evidence whether the Japanese Yen or the US dollar will be a suitable currency for the ASEAN-3 countries to adopt commonly.

Citation

Lu Xu, Z., Ward, B.D. and Gan, C. (2007), "Chapter 6 A single currency for ASEAN-5: An empirical study of economic convergence and symmetry", Kim, S.-J. and Mckenzie, M.D. (Ed.) Asia-Pacific Financial Markets: Integration, Innovation and Challenges (International Finance Review, Vol. 8), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 117-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1569-3767(07)00006-4