Uncertainty, the critical basis of risk management

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this paper is to scan the extent of uncertainty and hesitation in the development of plans and strategy.

Design/methodology/approach

The author evokes concrete cases of risk aversion, when the action either goes ahead or is stymied by lack of certitude. The incidents cited are of practical – rather than of theoretical – connotation.

Findings

This essay shows that the willful overcoming of missing assuredness may sometimes incur, in its turn, hazardous risk.

Originality/value

The paper illustrates the roles of intelligence, the measurement of precaution, and the willingness or failure to gamble on the (sometimes) long shot.

Citation

Richardson, J.G. (2009), "Uncertainty, the critical basis of risk management", Foresight, Vol. 11 No. 6, pp. 42-55. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680911004957