Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight

Citation

Atilla Öner, M. (2009), "Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight", Foresight, Vol. 11 No. 6, pp. 94-95. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680911004993

Describing two elephants: strategy and foresight

Six blind men were asked to determine what an elephant looked like by feeling different parts of the elephant's body. The blind man who feels a leg says the elephant is like a pillar; the one who feels the tail says the elephant is like a rope; the one who feels the trunk says the elephant is like a tree branch; the one who feels the ear says the elephant is like a hand fan; the one who feels the belly says the elephant is like a wall; and the one who feels the tusk says the elephant is like a solid pipe.

Costanzo and MacKay have edited an interesting “handbook” which adds to the continued discussion on definitions of “foresight”. The “handbook” has four parts:

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  I. Probing the Future: Cultivating Strategic Foresight (eight chapters).

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  II. Foresight and Organizational Becoming: Strategy Process, Practice and Change (seven chapters).

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  III. Shaping the Future: Strategizing and Innovation (seven chapters).

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  IV. Responding to the Future: Intuition, Inertia and Strategic Flexibility (seven chapters).

The editors of the “handbook” and authors of the chapters have cited over 2000[1] references (mostly books, chapter 1 cites 101 books out of 139 references) covering 100 years of research. The number of references cited in individual chapters varies between 19 and 150, with the median being 62, and the average 68. One needs to think carefully about the goals of this variation.

According to the editors:

The objective of the Handbook is to catalyze new thinking and to suggest new directions for cultivating and researching strategic foresight”. “To meet this objective, the Handbook draws together a collection of research papers contributed by both established and emerging scholars in the field of strategy and foresight.” “It seeks to highlight the latest developments in the field. This Handbook hopes to make its contribution to theory and practice by stimulating disciplined, rigorous and imaginative inquiry into the relationship between strategy and foresight.

Based on http://thesaurus.reference.com/browse/Handbook[2], I would have used “Overview” in the title instead of “Handbook”, since a “handbook” does not stimulate disciplined, rigorous and imaginative inquiry (p. 5), but shares agreed‐upon, well‐established procedures with its readers. Hornby et al. (1971) defines handbook as “small book giving useful facts; guide book” and fact as “sth that has happened or been done; sth known to be true or accepted as true; (sing. Without indef. Art.) reality, what is true, what exists”.

My first impression has been that researchers active in the strategy field have attempted to combine “strategy formulation process” with the individual foresight. The editors have brought together “four blind men” to do the job of “six blind men” (a very difficult job, indeed) in describing “foresight”, but not “Foresight” (with a capital F). There seems to be a need to distinguish these two. “foresight” may be used for the concept discussed by the authors of the “handbook” chapters, which is “the property/quality of an individual”. “Foresight”, on the other hand, may be used to define the research field (and a methodology) which is covered by academic journals such as Foresight, Futures, International Journal of Innovation and Foresight among others.

I also want take issue with use of the word “strategic”. In many places in chapters, I would have preferred the use of “competitive” in place of “strategic”. A discussion of the concepts “strategic foresight” and “strategy foresight” would prove very useful for the field. In Hornby et al. (1971), strategic is defined as “adj. of, by, serving the purpose of, strategy”. As anything can become “strategic”, this approach dilutes the meaning of “strategy”. The integrated management model discussed by Alsan and Öner (2003, 2004) and Saritas and Öner (2004) would contribute to this discussion.

In none of the chapters there is a discussion of time perspectives in quantified terms, i.e. < how long is “long term”?> (Jacques, 1990). Integrated management model assumes different time horizons for different management levels, e.g. operational 0‐36 months, strategic 37‐84 months, normative 85‐360 months. A chapter on time perspectives (Göl and Öner, 2009) and others on long waves and roadmapping (Sarıtaş and Öner, 2004) would have improved on the completeness of the “handbook”.

In some papers, I have difficulty in agreeing with the use of certain words to describe certain concepts and constructs. For example, in Ch 01 farsight is used. Far‐seeing (adj.) is given in Hornby et al. (1971) as “seeing far into the future”. On the other hand, far‐sighted (adj.) has two meanings, “able to see distant objects more clearly than near objects” and “(fig) prudent; having good judgement of future needs, etc.” If we were to agree with the arguments of Wacker (2004), we should avoid using farsight in foresight research. In Ch10, repeatedly and repetitively are used as if they do not have the same meaning (cf [2])[3]. In attempting to develop a theory, we should not attempt to extend the already‐existing meanings of terms.

Although the collection has brought together several contributions of considerable significance, papers (i.e. chapters) appearing in this “handbook” do not represent a theoretical breakthrough in the concepts of strategy and foresight. Readers should beware that they will not find vastly new insights into strategy and foresight in this handbook, if they kept up with the literature of the fields. For graduate students and others who are just entering the field, the “handbook” serves the admirable purpose of bringing them an extensive list of literature on a rather diversified number of subjects.

Some works may be pioneering, making their appraisal difficult, future uncertain and the direction of this endeavor of bringing together strategy and foresight unclear, although necessary and useful. I suggest the purchase of the “handbook” and discussion of its contents to contribute to this difficult multi‐disciplinary endeavor!

Notes

2000/08: 526; 1990/99: 819; 1980/89: 335; 1970/79: 135; 1960/69: 84.

Handbook: noun, document giving instruction, information; synonyms, bible, compendium, guidebook, instruction book.

Repeat: say or do again; repeatedly: again and again; repetitively: characterized by repetition; repetition: repeating or being repeated.