Evolution of foresight in the global historical context

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this paper is to dynamically outline the evolution of foresight in different generations of globalization and different countries. The intention is to characterize several main events, inventions and circumstances that have conducted the evolution of this pervasive method together with broader participation and a changing focus of foresight over time.

Design/methodology/approach

The assumption is that foresight has evolved as a consequence of increasing uncertainties that bring globalization and technological progress, and that it is a specific form of very long‐term participative strategic planning. It is impossible to directly link the increasing uncertainties in the global environment and the spread of foresight. However, it is possible to compare the history of foresight in relation to the history of globalization through several main historical events, inventions and initiatives typical for both evolutions. These events were primarily selected based on The History of the World. The inventions were primarily voted as the “Invention of the Year” in different industries and the foresight initiatives were selected from the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN). The study was based on an intensive literature review and comparison, and complemented by the foresight history bibliometrical statistics of the EFMN database in order to see how exactly foresight has evolved and changed over time.

Findings

The paper provides a comprehensive insight into the history of foresight based on the description of the main foresight generations and their characterization. What can be claimed based on this study is that foresight has its predecessors and conditional evolution. According to the study, the evolution of foresight is connected with the establishment of China in 1949, where the government and many specialists worked together on the long‐term S&T development strategy that had many elements of foresight. Since that time, many countries have benefited from this synergic participative long‐term planning. Foresight has been successful and has spread to more and more countries, which is obvious from the increasing rate of new initiatives every year.

Research limitations/implications

The scope of this theme and the diversity of specialists' opinions do not allow overly excessive analyses. The main approach here is to identify the fundamental development of foresight in relation to several key historical events and the history of forecasting and globalization, and to outline several linkages. Second, there are significant differences in dating foresight as a new developing scientific discipline in many countries over time. Lastly, the opinions of experts differ too much considering the difference between foresight and forecasting.

Practical implications

The paper includes appeals for further detailed studies/hindsight and discussion of each foresight generation mainly in relation to its real effectiveness, especially in countries like China, Japan, the USA, Germany, France and the UK, which have been applying foresight for 20 to 50 years. This is especially important in order to develop foresight as a purposeful effective scientific discipline.

Originality/value

The paper is a clear comprehensive analysis of foresight history. Its key added value lies in the comprehensive insight into three subsequent tables and figures that depict foresight in relation to the milestones of globalization and the world history.

Citation

Jemala, M. (2010), "Evolution of foresight in the global historical context", Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 4, pp. 65-81. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681011063004