Stock returns and volatility dynamics in China: Does the control of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) matter?

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the nature of equity ownership of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for over 2,000 listed firms in China. The paper examines both the pattern of state ownership and the dynamics of stock returns and volatility. Firms under the control of SOEs dominate the Chinese stock markets and currently account for over three-quarters of total market capitalisation. Central SOEs are focused in strategic industries, while Local SOEs concentrate on pillar industries relating to consumer goods and services.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors obtain firm-level data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and using panel estimation techniques examine the dynamics of returns, volatility and their relationship.

Findings

The authors report an increase in state control among listed firms compared to earlier reported figures. This is contradictory to the expectation of a lower state influence following China joining of the World Trade Organisation in 2001. In examining the behaviour of stock returns the authors find evidence of daily and monthly autocorrelations that are larger and of a different sign to that reported for western markets. The authors also report evidence of volatility persistence but little evidence of volatility asymmetry, again in contrast to that often reported for other markets. Finally, the authors find evidence of either no or a negative relationship between returns and volatility (risk) that differs from our usual view of risk aversion.

Originality/value

It is hoped, knowledge of these dynamics will increase the understanding of the Chinese equity market, which in turn is important for those engaged in international portfolio management and micro-structure modelling.

Citation

McMillan, D.G. and Evans, P. (2015), "Stock returns and volatility dynamics in China: Does the control of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) matter?", China Finance Review International, Vol. 5 No. 2, pp. 103-131. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-08-2014-0041