Small countries facing the technological revolution: fostering synergies between economic complexity and foresight research
Abstract
Purpose
Although the significance of technological progress in economic development is well-established in theory and policy, it has remained challenging to agree upon shared priorities for strategies and policies. This paper aims to develop a model of how policymakers can develop effective and easy to communicate strategies for science, technology and economic development.
Design/methodology/approach
By integrating insights from economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature, a replicable research framework for analysing the opportunities and challenges of technological revolutions for small catching-up countries is developed. The authors highlight key lessons from piloting this framework for informing the strategy and policies for bioeconomy in Estonia towards 2030–2050.
Findings
The integration of economic complexity research with traditional foresight methods establishes a solid analytical basis for a data-driven analysis of the opportunities for industrial upgrading. The increase in the importance of regional alliances in the global economy calls for further advancement of the analytical toolbox. Integration of complexity, global value chains and export potential assessment approaches offers valuable direction for further research, as it enables discussion of the opportunities of moving towards more knowledge-intensive economic activities along with the opportunities for winning international market share.
Originality/value
The research merges insights from the economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature in a novel way and illustrates the applicability and priority-setting in a real-life setting.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The current paper builds and extends on Tiits et al., 2021. The authors would like to thank Mati Mõtte, Jaan Kers, Margit Kirs, Siiri Külm, Maarja Semm, Erik Terk and the numerous expert participants of the scenario workshops for their thoughtful contributions to the process. Any remaining errors remain those solely of the authors of the current paper.
This work was supported by Eesti Teadusagentuur (ADDVAL-BIOEC, PRG1573, PRG346); Estonian Defence Forces (R-013/R-010); European Commission, Horizon 2020 (778398, 952410); European Commission, Horizon Europe (101079227).
Citation
Tiits, M., Karo, E. and Kalvet, T. (2024), "Small countries facing the technological revolution: fostering synergies between economic complexity and foresight research", Competitiveness Review, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/CR-03-2023-0051
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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