Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions
Abstract
Purpose
Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations.
Findings
The paper shows how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. The paper recommends carefully examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity.
Originality/value
Despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable comments and the review by Professor Alan Porter.
Citation
Suominen, A. and Seppänen, M. (2014), "Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions", Foresight, Vol. 16 No. 1, pp. 37-53. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-03-2013-0007
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited