Forecasting internet diffusion in Italy based on the “.it” domain names metrics
ISSN: 1463-6689
Article publication date: 26 April 2022
Issue publication date: 1 May 2023
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this study is to examine the trend over time of the demand for .it domain names.This study first assesses whether there is a phase of growth and expansion or at a point of saturation. Second, this research can be useful also to compare researches that have considered other internet metrics and other models.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper describes the forecasting methods used to analyze the internet diffusion in Italy. The domain names under the country code top-level domain “.it” have used as metrics. To predict domain names .it the seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and the Holt-Winters (H-W) methods have been used.
Findings
The results show that, to predict domain names .it the SARIMA model is better than the H-W methods. According to the findings, notwithstanding the forecast of a growth in domain names, the increase is however limited (about 3%), tending to reach a phase of saturation of the market of domain names .it.
Originality/value
In general many authors have studied internet diffusion applying statistical models that follow an S-shaped behavior. On the other hand, the more used diffusion models that follow an S-shape not always provide an adequate description of the Internet growth pattern. To achieve this goal, this paper demonstrates how the time series models, in particular SARIMA model and H-W models, fit well in explaining the spread of the internet.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank the anonymous referees for their useful suggestions, that helped to improve this paper. This work is supported by “.it” Registry of the Institute of Informatics and Telematics (IIT-CNR).
Citation
Serrecchia, M. (2023), "Forecasting internet diffusion in Italy based on the “.it” domain names metrics", Foresight, Vol. 25 No. 3, pp. 400-419. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2021-0096
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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