Predicting tourism market potential of Chile by use of a qualitative forecasting technique

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to project the future tourism market potential of Chile by use of the Delphi qualitative forecasting technique.

Design/methodology/approach

The Delphi forecasting technique as a market research tool is used to predict future tourism and hospitality scenarios for Chile from 2007 through the year of 2027. Although tourism demand projections predict positive trends in the short-term, in the medium and long-term tourism demand is subjected to a host of fast-changing volatile uncontrollable factors which make long-term projections difficult.

Findings

The study's findings indicate that Chilean tourism experts forecast progressively more changes and higher impact as one moves from values, structures and events. The managerial implication of this for industry operators and public policymakers is that increased tourism activities may prove more beneficial if focused on changing hospitality and tourism industry structures and events rather than changing the value systems of the people.

Originality/value

The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of future occurrences in the tourism industry environment of Chile. It also assists us in the development of effective tourism marketing plans and strategies for the Chilean tourism industry. The results of the study offer both theoretical/conceptual and managerial implications for tourism and hospitality research and practice.

Citation

Kaynak, E. and I. Rojas-Méndez, J. (2014), "Predicting tourism market potential of Chile by use of a qualitative forecasting technique", International Journal of Commerce and Management, Vol. 24 No. 2, pp. 167-179. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCoMA-06-2013-0054