Investor sentiment: a retail trader activity approach
Review of Accounting and Finance
ISSN: 1475-7702
Article publication date: 14 April 2022
Issue publication date: 19 April 2022
Abstract
Purpose
This study creates a measure of investor sentiment directly from retail trader activity to identify misvaluation and to examine the link between sentiment and subsequent returns.
Design/methodology/approach
Using investor reports from a large discount brokerage that include measures of activity such as net buying, net new accounts and net new assets, this study creates a measure of retail trader sentiment using principal components. This study examines the relation between sentiment and returns through conditional mean and regression analyses.
Findings
Retail sentiment activity coincides with aggregate Google Trends search data and firms with the greatest sensitivity to retail sentiment tend to be small, young and volatile. Periods of high retail sentiment precede poor subsequent market returns. Cross-sectional results detail the strongest impact on subsequent returns within difficult to value or difficult to arbitrage firms.
Originality/value
This study links a rich measure of retail trader activity to subsequent market and cross-sectional returns. These results deepen our understanding of noise trader risk and aggregate investor sentiment.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The paper has been substantially improved through the review process. Author would like to thank the editor, and two anonymous referees.
Citation
Berger, D. (2022), "Investor sentiment: a retail trader activity approach", Review of Accounting and Finance, Vol. 21 No. 2, pp. 61-82. https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-06-2021-0152
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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