Cointegration between stock prices, dividends, output and consumption: Evidence and forecasting ability for 29 markets

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically test for multiple cointegrating vectors in a holistic manner. Theoretical developments imply bivariate cointegration among stock prices, dividends, output and consumption where independent models identify key theoretical cointegration vectors.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper considers both Johansen and Horvath–Watson testing approaches for cointegration. This paper also examines the forecasting power of these cointegrating relationships against alternate forecast variables.

Findings

The results suggest evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between stock prices, dividends, output and consumption, although not necessarily linked by a single common stochastic trend; each series responds to disequilibrium with greater evidence of a reaction from dividends and consumption – of note, output responds to changes in stock market equilibrium; and there is forecast power from the joint stock market–macro cointegrating vector for stocks returns and consumption growth over the historical average. Of particular note, other forecast models that include consumption perform well and suggest a key role for this variable in stock return and consumption growth forecasts.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to combine the cointegrating relationships between stocks, dividends, output and consumption. Thus, the empirical validity of stated theoretical hypotheses can be analysed. The forecast results also demonstrate the usefulness of this. They also show that forecast models that include consumption perform well and suggest a key role for this variable in stock return and consumption growth forecasts.

Citation

Black, A.J., McMillan, D.G. and McMillan, F.J. (2015), "Cointegration between stock prices, dividends, output and consumption: Evidence and forecasting ability for 29 markets", Review of Accounting and Finance, Vol. 14 No. 1, pp. 81-103. https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-09-2013-0103