Apocalypse unleashed: a critical perspective on complexity science, catastrophes, and black swan events in international business
Critical Perspectives on International Business
ISSN: 1742-2043
Article publication date: 15 January 2024
Issue publication date: 1 February 2024
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological approach for modeling catastrophic consequences caused by black swan events, based on complexity science, and framed on Feyerabend’s anarchistic theory of knowledge. An empirical application is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.
Design/methodology/approach
Thom’s nonlinear differential equations of morphogenesis are used to develop a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophes on international business (IB). The model is then estimated using real-world data on the performance of multinational airlines during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.
Findings
The catastrophe model exhibits a remarkable capability to simultaneously capture complex linear and nonlinear relationships. Through empirical estimations and simulations, this approach enables the analysis of IB phenomena under normal conditions, as well as during black swan events.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the impact of black swan events in IB using a catastrophe model grounded in complexity theory. The proposed model successfully integrates the abrupt and profound effects of catastrophes on multinational corporations, offering a critical perspective on the theoretical and practical use of complexity science in IB.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The author expresses gratitude to the Editors of CPOIB and acknowledges the valuable and constructive feedback provided by the anonymous reviewers. The detailed comments provided by the reviewers have significantly contributed to improving the quality of this study. Partial funding for this article was provided by the Bayesian Institute for Research and Development.
Since submission of this article, the following author has updated their affiliation: Rolando Gonzales Martinez is at the University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
Citation
Gonzales Martinez, R. (2023), "Apocalypse unleashed: a critical perspective on complexity science, catastrophes, and black swan events in international business", Critical Perspectives on International Business, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 94-120. https://doi.org/10.1108/cpoib-03-2022-0014
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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