foresight and economics: harnessing wealth

Citation

Blackman, C. (2002), "foresight and economics: harnessing wealth", Foresight, Vol. 4 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs.2002.27304aaa.001

foresight and economics: harnessing wealth

foresight and economics: harnessing wealth

The relationship between the disciplines of futures studies and economics has always been uneasy to say the least. By and large economists dismiss futures studies as flaky and lacking in rigour. Meanwhile, most futurists consider traditional economics as too narrow, unquestioning and predominantly supporting the status quo. Consequently, there are few practitioners in either of these dark arts who are comfortable in both fields. One of the few is Emilio Fontela. Fontela is aware of both the weaknesses and the strengths in both economics and futures studies but believes that both fields can learn much from each other.

In his article "From the wealth of nations to the wealth of the world" in this issue, Fontela firmly lays down the challenge for economists in the next century. The past century was characterized by a world of nation states, often in conflict, with the economic focus on internal social problems and equity issues. In the twenty-first century, the forces of information technology, markets and globalization will continue to be felt and will bring about both positive and negative effects. The greatest challenge for economists in the next century and more is to understand how these forces can bring about the wealth of the world, built around the concept of sustainability (with its four pillars of economic efficiency, social equity, ecological balance, and democratic governance).

Fontela's article sets an ambitious agenda for economic research along four lines – socio-economics, mesoeconomics, techno-economics, and foresight – which will require extending the frontiers of economics, particularly opening it up to multidisciplinary approaches. But Fontela argues that this is critical, as we move from "the narrow, egocentric discipline of the wealth of nations, towards the all-embracing wealth of the world". Efforts such as designing a world-level welfare state, or a world currency, or global management of natural resources demand that economists think differently.

Another group which challenges business-as-usual economic thinking is the New Economics Foundation (NEF). In this issue, David Boyle, a senior associate with NEF and editor of Radical Economics, explores the concept of intellectual currencies and i-commerce. It is widely accepted that a large part of the wealth of an organization is tied up in its knowledge, but it begs many questions. This has led companies and organizations to attempt to measure and capture its intellectual capital through social auditing and other techniques. The idea of i-commerce goes further and applies this thinking to encourage the sharing of intellectual capital inside large and disparate organisations. Boyle defines it like this:

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  i-commerce means measuring and rewarding the help and support which one department in an organisation – or one individual – gives to other parts of the organisation when it is outside their immediate responsibility. It is a tool that can involve staff at all levels, as well as suppliers and other stakeholders. It could also give an important competitive edge to companies looking for new ways of unlocking the hidden knowledge assets in the organisation.

Application of this thinking has led, for instance, to the setting-up of the first UK time banks as a community development tool; skill swap centres, using people's skills and learning as a form of currency to boost local training and education; and the first school time banks, measuring and rewarding pupils for tutoring other pupils. We are still in the early stages of the application of these tools and more experience is necessary before we can really evaluate their usefulness. Nevertheless, the advantages look promising, not only to companies but also for other kinds of organizations and communities.

Colin Blackman