foresight in the mainstream

Citation

Blackman, C. (2002), "foresight in the mainstream", Foresight, Vol. 4 No. 2. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs.2002.27304baa.001

foresight in the mainstream

foresight in the mainstream

For many years futures research has been considered a Cinderella activity or beyond the pale. But there are growing indications that futures thinking is at last becoming accepted as valid approach and is being embraced by a wide range of organizations in a variety of contexts.

The articles in this issue of foresight provide further evidence that futures methods are becoming part of the mainstream of analysis and planning in both the public and private sectors. Indeed, looking at these articles, perhaps we can go further and suggest that futures methods and thinking are being seen as an essential part of organizational transformation and growth.

Take Peter Saul's article for instance, which is a companion piece to one by Sohail Inayatullah published in the last issue of foresight. Saul describes a project undertaken with an established Australian insurance corporation to identify new product concepts. To futurists there is nothing particularly new in the approach taken, but the outcome produced several revolutionary ideas being pursued by the company (which unfortunately meant that the article could not be as complete as the author would like). The point really is that there is more and more evidence that companies are adopting such methods for a variety of purposes, especially the identification of new products and services.

Of course, the private sector has always toyed with futures methods but has always had difficulties with the tension between long-time horizons and the short-term needs of the balance sheet. But there is enough evidence around to suggest futures is becoming part of the mainstream in large organizations in the private sector.

The public sector too is showing greater interest. L. Valadares Tavares describes a national technology foresight project in Portugal. The main objective was to boost the contribution of engineering and technology and improve the competitiveness of Portuguese firms. Several policy initiatives have resulted, including an inter-ministry initiative to promote innovation, and the organization of a national conference to rethink engineering education.

More remarkably, perhaps, Jamie Saunders describes how the receptivity of Blair's government to foresight in the UK, a topic which has been discussed in this journal in past issues, has opened the door to futures methods at the local level through the UK's modernization programme for local government. The driving force of course is the desire of the New Labour government to modernize the public sector. Part of this involves measures to modernize and transform local government and to develop a framework for local governance for well-being and sustainable development within this wider modernization of the nation-state.

Saunders refers to "a quiet revolution" which is "creating major opportunities for foresight, futures research and anticipatory management at a local level and for developing processes that focus civic attention on a regular basis on long-term challenges and implications for personal, corporate and political action". If Saunders' analysis is correct, here is a remarkable example of how long-term thinking is becoming embedded within institutions of government at the day-to-day level.

Colin Blackman