Citation
Bezold, C. and Miles, I. (2002), "From forecasting the future of technology to shaping the priorities for research", Foresight, Vol. 4 No. 4. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs.2002.27304daa.001
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2002, MCB UP Limited
From forecasting the future of technology to shaping the priorities for research
From forecasting the future of technology to shaping the priorities for research
New technologies are allowing us to shape aspects of the world in unprecedented ways. The new understandings of how genetic information is processed in biological systems, what the functions of specific genes are, and how to engage in "genetic engineering" as well as screening and other practices, are startling examples of this. They allow for new agricultural and health activities, and raise important dilemmas concerning environmental and reproductive ethics.
Social research has increasingly been forced to engage with the challenges posed by technological change. In Britain, the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) ran successful research programmes in the 1980s and 1990s around the new information and communications technologies, and is now establishing centres of excellence in research exploring the social and economic implications of genomics.
The articles in this issue of foresight stem from a project conducted to inform this process. The project team was led by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) and the Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC). It undertook (in addition to the usual literature reviews, etc.) a series of interviews and workshops with experts, stakeholders and futurists in genomics and related social science fields. The main workshop was a two-day scenario workshop.
Three of the four essays that follow this introduction are largely based on background research for the scenario workshop, prepared by the project team These papers present overviews of the new biotechnology, discussing the major application areas that are developing and presenting forecasts around these; an account of the research issues that are raised when we confront the ESRC's established thematic priorities with genomics; and a set of four scenarios for genomics and society (looking out to 2015). The final essay reviews the process of the project, and especially the priorities for research identified at the project's scenario workshop.
The study proved to be a useful input into the ESRC's decision making, and may have a wider impact than simply informing the particular decision for which it was commissioned. We are presenting the results and methods here for a number of reasons. First, the issues that the project confronted are ones that are profoundly important, and we hope to at least stimulate more futurists and social scientists to think about them. Second, we have demonstrated the utility of applying futures techniques to such a topic, and hope to spark further interest in applying such methods to these and related topics. Scenario approaches provide some entry points that can facilitate cross-disciplinary and open-minded appraisal of emerging issues. We would like to see such methods developed further, as well as simply seeing the approaches used here emulated. Third, we suspect that this project has more general lessons concerned with how social research might be related to emerging topics of general concern, and hope that social scientists can be encouraged to be more forward-looking through considering these.
Clement BezoldInstitute for Alternative Futures(cbezold@altfutures.com)
Ian MilesCentre for Research on Innovation and Competition(ian.miles@man.ac.uk)