Publications

Citation

(2002), "Publications", Foresight, Vol. 4 No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs.2002.27304eae.001

Publications

Publications for listing in this section should be sent to Graham May, Reviews Editor, foresight, Principal Lecturer in Futures Research, Leeds Metropolitan University, School of the Built Environment, Brunswick Building, Leeds LS2 8BU, UK.

Note: items including a code (e.g. FS 22:8/373) are abbreviated versions of abstracts selected from Future Survey, published by the World Future Society (for more information see http://www.wfs.org/wfs/fsurv.htm)

George Soros on GlobalizationGeorge Soros (Public Affairs, New York, 2002, 191 pp, $20.00, FS 24:7/329)

Billionaire financier and philanthropist, and author of Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism confesses that "my last book was rather weak when it came to prescribing solutions". Still, he is "passionately interested in improving the system that has allowed me to be successful so that it will become more enduring". Globalization is a desirable development in many ways, and private enterprise is better at wealth creation than the state. But globalization has a negative side, hurting many people, particularly in less-developed countries. It also misallocates resources between private and public goods (markets are good at creating wealth, but are not designed to take care of other social needs). Third, global financial markets are crisis prone, and tend to hit the developing economies much harder. Market fundamentalists see the benefits of global financial markets, but ignore their shortcomings. The trouble is that the winners do not compensate the losers: "there is no international equivalent of the political process that occurs within individual states". It is not enough to devise better arrangements for the provision of public goods on a global scale; we must also find ways to improve political and social conditions within individual countries, in that "by far the most important causes of misery and poverty in the world today are armed conflict, oppressive and corrupt regimes, and weak states".

Chapters are devoted to:

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  the World Trade Organization (the capacity of developing countries to participate must be strengthened);

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  effective international aid as the missing component (Soros offers a scheme of special drawing rights to provide public goods on a global scale and add to the reserves of LDCs, and a Tobin-type tax on international financial transactions collected worldwide – including tax havens);

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  the multilateral development banks (this is not the right time for a major reform of the World Bank, which should come after the SDR scheme has proven successful);

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  financial stability and the IMF (an international bankruptcy mechanism is needed, and the playing field must be made less uneven; but there is no point in proposing more radical solutions when the authorities are not ready to consider even the moderate ones outlined here);

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  a global open society ("acceptance of imperfection coupled with a constant search for improvement and a willingness to submit to critical examination are the guiding principles of an open society").

An open society alliance is proposed, to strengthen governments and those elements within society that seek to move toward democracy. This book proposes an agenda around which such a coalition might coalesce. "The fight against terrorism cannot succeed unless we can also project a vision of a better world."

Global Environment Outlook 3: Past, Present, and Future PerspectivesUN Environment Programme (Earthscan, London, 2002, 446 pp with CD, $89.95, FS 24:7/337)

The GEO project, begun in 1995, was initiated in response to the environmental reporting requirements of Agenda 21 and to a UNEP decision to produce a comprehensive global state of the environment report. GEO-1 was published in January 1997, and GEO-2000 in September 1999.

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  Integrating Environment and Development: 1972-2002. A 27-page essay on the evolution of ideas at UN summits, leading to the World Summit on Sustainable Development in August 2002, and "renewed hope for adoption of meaningful and effective actions by the world's major decision makers".

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  State of the Environment and Policy Retrospective: 1972-2002. The bulk of this book provides socio-economic background (population growth and GDP/capita growth in the world and its regions), and reports on land, forests, biodiversity, freshwater, coastal and marine areas, atmosphere, urban areas, and the growing costs of natural and human-caused disasters. Concludes that "there have been immense changes in both human and environmental conditions over the past 30 years … (and) in many areas, the state of the environment is much more fragile and degraded than it was in 1972." The result is characterized by four major divides: the environmental divide, the policy divide (some regions have strength in policy development and implementation, while others struggle in both), the widening vulnerability gap, and the lifestyle divide. "The four gaps are a serious threat to sustainable development … overall, policy measures have not been adequate to counteract the pressures imposed by increasing poverty and uncontrolled consumption."

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  Human vulnerability to environmental change. A 15-page essay on the many instances where individuals, communities, and even countries are vulnerable to threats from their physical environment. Although nothing new, "the degree and extent of vulnerability appears to be increasing", due to such factors as the impact of humans on the environment, reduced functioning of ecosystems, more spatially concentrated populations, and growing human settlement in high risk areas. "In an increasing number of areas, environmental damage may be irreversible."

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  Outlook: 2002-2032. This presents four extensive scenarios reflecting policy priorities. Markets First, where most of the world adopts the values prevailing in today's industrialized countries, and the optimal play of market forces dominates social and political agendas; ethical investors and citizen groups try to exercise corrective influence, but are undermined by economic imperatives. Policy First, where decisive initiatives are taken by governments to try to reach social and environmental goals; a coordinated pro-environment and anti-poverty drive balances the momentum for economic development at any cost. Environmental and social costs are factored into policy measures, and reinforced by fiscal levers and incentives. Security First assumes a world of striking disparities where inequality and conflict prevail. Protest and counteraction are increasingly prevalent, and wealthy groups focus on self-protection, creating enclaves akin to gated communities. Sustainability First features a new environment and development paradigm in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by more equitable values and institutions, a more visionary state of affairs, accountable corporate behavior, businesses taking greater responsibility for the whole life cycle of projects and products, and fuller collaboration between governments and citizens. New technologies play an instrumental role in progress, enabling improved energy and water use efficiency, desalination, and better medical treatment. Concludes with eight lessons from the future scenarios (e.g. each has fundamentally different implications for the environment, there can be significant delays between decisions and impacts, widely-agreed environmental and social goals will require dramatic and coordinated action starting now, strong institutions for environmental governance is a prerequisite for almost all other policies, etc.).

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  Options for Action. This concludes that among the three pillars of sustainable development (social, economic, environmental), "the collapse of the environmental pillar is a serious possibility if action – from local to global – is not taken as a matter of urgency to address human impacts". Suggested actions include improving policy performance monitoring, strengthening international environmental legislation and compliance, changing trade patterns to benefit the environment, making the market work for sustainable development, and participatory management.

Global Trends and Global GovernanceEdited by Paul Kennedy, Dirk Messner and Franz Nuscheler (Pluto Press, London, 2002, 208 pp, $69.95, FS 24:7/318)

Six essays by Kennedy and German colleagues that seek to provide "a crude look at the whole". Kennedy notes that "the global trends that seem likely to be the most important over the next decades are both confusing and contradictory"; some suggest great material progress, while others suggest at least as much turbulence as the years 1900-1950. Other essays discuss guiding principles for the epoch of globalism (national egoisms and solo actions are doomed to failure, world society will see nation-states assuming the role of provinces), needed reforms in the world economy (the likelihood of a Tobin Tax, reforming the IMF), innovations in global environmental governance (new actors, instruments, procedures), new threats faced by the "global risk society" (WMDs, terrorism, organized crime), four models of world order (anarchy, hegemonic, world state, horizontal self-coordination), and building blocks of a global governance architecture (different forms and levels of coordination and decision making, renouncing some sovereignty to promote cooperation, regionalization).

A concluding synopsis outlines 20 central global trends:

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  World society: increasing number of people living in absolute poverty despite many improvements, deepening social disparities in and between countries, continuing growth of world population but slower than predicted in early 1990s, intensified pressure to migrate from poverty regions (increasingly seen as a security problem within the South itself), enhancing rights and improving education opportunities for women, the communications revolution still in its infancy as costs decline dramatically though barriers to access remain high;

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  World economy: integration of LDCs in the world economy, long-term unemployment as a central problem in many developed countries, destabilizing international financial markets, an ever-faster merry-go-round of international mergers, increased competition/confrontation of the great economic powers;

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  World ecology: increasing greenhouse gases and lack of effective control instruments, reduction of ozone-depleting substances by 85 per cent since 1987, growing mobility of people, environmental problems as growing factor in violent conflicts, growing number of environmental accords;

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  World politics: more peaceful international relations jeopardized by multiple risks, growing number of internal ("ethnic") conflicts, burgeoning arms trade, progress in institutionalizing and protecting human rights.

The Precautionary Principle in the 20th Century: Late Lessons from Early WarningsEdited by Poul Harremöes et al. (Earthscan, London, 2002, 268 pp, $29.95, FS 24:7/341)

Precautionary prevention has often been used in medicine and public health, under the logic of "better safe than sorry". But application of the precautionary principle to environmental hazards and their uncertainties only began to emerge as an explicit and coherent concept in the 1970s. These are 14 case studies of early warnings ignored and even "loud and late" warnings: fisheries depletion, radiation effects, the toxic effects of benzene as seen in the USA and Europe, asbestos (from "magic" to malevolent material), PCBs, halocarbons and the ozone layer, prenatal exposure to DES, antimicrobial growth promoters, the effects of sulfur dioxide emissions, MTBE in petrol as a substitute for lead, early warnings of chemical contamination of the Great Lakes, TBT antifoulants (extremely effective as antifouling biocides for the shipping industry and small boat owners), hormones as growth promoters, and "mad cow disease" or BSE.

Twelve "late lessons" are derived from these case studies:

1. 1.

   respond to ignorance as well as uncertainty (a central lesson is to recognize the limits of our knowledge and acknowledge the possibility of surprise);

2. 2.

   research and monitor to pick up early warnings;

3. 3.

   search out and address blind spots and gaps in scientific knowledge;

4. 4.

   identify and reduce interdisciplinary obstacles to learning;

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   ensure that "real world" conditions are fully accounted for in regulatory appraisal;

6. 6.

   systematically scrutinize the claimed benefits alongside the potential risks;

7. 7.

   evaluate a range of alternative options and promote robust, diverse, and adaptable technologies;

8. 8.

   ensure use of "lay" and local knowledge in the appraisal, as well as relevant specialist expertise;

9. 9.

   take full account of the assumptions and values of different social groups;

10. 10.

    maintain regulatory independence from special interests;

11. 11.

    identify and reduce institutional obstacles to learning and access;

12. 12.

    avoid "paralysis by analysis" when there are reasonable grounds for acting.

In sum, the case studies show many examples where regulatory inaction led to costly consequences that were not foreseen. Regulation should involve balancing the costs of being too restrictive with the costs of being too permissive.

A Public Role for the Private Sector: Industry Self-Regulation in a Global EconomyVirginia Haufler (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC, 2001, 157 pp, $16.95, FS 24:7/333)

Multinational corporations have taken advantage of increasingly integrated markets to organize production on a global scale. There are now 60,000 MNCs, with more than 450,000 subsidiaries. The private sector is weaving together the world economy to an unprecedented degree. Most people believe that MNCs deliberately undermine national regulatory systems and drive standards down to the lowest common denominator. Yet, many companies engage in collective efforts to develop new international standards that go beyond what is required by national law. This evolving sense of social responsibility has not been taken seriously to date, but it is a prominent feature of current corporate practice.

In contrast to the past, many companies now actively seek out their critics in the nonprofit world as partners for new social and environmental programs. Businesses are being pushed and pulled to adopt voluntary standards for fear of ill-conceived international rules and transnational activist pressure. Critics dismiss this approach as a public relations ploy to ward off government regulation and make companies look good to consumers. Proponents argue that these voluntary standards have a significant positive influence on the behavior of companies, and are easier to implement than traditional industry regulation. "All sides view industry self-regulation as a potential new source of global governance." The problem with these voluntary "third way" initiatives is precisely that they are voluntary, with often-weak enforcement mechanisms.

Three chapter-length case studies explore the factors that drive firms to self-regulation, and the tensions that arise between public and private interests:

1. 1.

   International environmental pollution. ISO 14000 standards are fast becoming a requirement for doing business in world markets (e.g. recently, both GM and Ford declared that all their suppliers must be certified to these standards), and corporate environmental programs are becoming more institutionalized in many firms; however, the overall system of private initiatives still addresses only some environmental issues, and monitoring systems (although stronger than before) are still weak in measuring and gathering data.

2. 2.

   Labor standards. Industry self-regulation in the area of worker rights has great potential to improve the lives of many people in LDCs, but codes of conduct to date have not lived up to claims (e.g. the Global Sourcing and Operating Guidelines of Levi Strauss) and systems of monitoring are very much in their infancy; few corporate codes commit the company to uphold freedom of association and the right to organize and bargain collectively.

3. 3.

   Information privacy. Privacy policies adopted by many firms are simply statements of policy, without any real enforcement provisions, and few privacy policies include an easy process to contest misuse or mistakes in collecting data.

Vital Signs 2002: The Trends That Are Shaping Our FutureBy the Worldwatch Institute, in cooperation with the UN Environment Programme (W.W. Norton, New York, 2002, 215 pp, $14.95, FS 24:7/317)

`The 11th edition of an annual series, focusing on 56 indicators (about one-third of them new), each discussed in a signed, two-page essay (one page text and one page charts and data).

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  Food and agriculture. Aquaculture production intensifies (this fastest-growing segment of food production now provides 31 per cent of the world's food fish and cultivates some 220 fish species; production has grown nearly 400 per cent in the past 15 years), world grain harvest per person continues decline from 1984 peak, world meat production per person climbed to a new high, sugar and sweetener use continues to grow (the USA by far the world leader), world irrigated area rises.

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  Energy trends. Fossil fuel consumption up 1.3 per cent, total installed nuclear power generating capacity up 0.4 per cent, wind energy generating capacity up 37 per cent [!!], solar cell use up 36 per cent (the fourth straight year of growth >30 per cent), sales of energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps up 15 per cent.

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  Atmosphere. Global surface air temperature second warmest ever (1998 was the warmest year so far), carbon emissions reach new high (the eighth annual record since 1990).

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  Economic trends. Total output reached a new high in 2001 (but the rate of growth was among the lowest since 1950), total value of world exports declined 4.1 per cent, foreign debt falls in dollar terms (but may be a statistical aberration), foreign aid spending falls, metals exploration investment drops sharply but metals production up 7 per cent, oil spills decline to lowest recorded level since 1968, roundwood production up, global cruise industry continues growth (averaging 8 percent/year over the past decade).

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  Transportation. Global passenger car production down 2.7 per cent to 40 million (the global passenger car fleet grew to 555 million in 2001), car sharing emerging (some 126,000 people share 5,500 vehicles, mostly in Europe), production of bicycles up 9 per cent (China accounts for more than half of global output, and nearly all of the increase), world rail travel stagnated (as rail's share of travel decreased in relation to road and air).

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  Communications. Internet continues meteoric rise (nearly doubling since 1999, to 147 million host computers and 520 million users; about 100 million users are in the developing world), mobile phone use up 38 per cent to nearly 1 billion subscribers in 2001 (more than double the 1999 total).

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  Environment. Farmland quality deteriorating (10-20 per cent suffers from some level of degradation), forest loss unchecked by regrowth, transboundary parks become popular (not only to conserve biodiversity but to promote regional stability (by 2001 there were 169 sites, up from 59 sites in 1988), toxic waste generation continues with no sign of slowing, Rio Earth Summit treaties post some success, ecolabeling gains ground, pesticide sales remain strong, growth of national appliance efficiency programs.

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  Health. HIV/AIDS continues growth (Asia could become another disease epicenter), food-borne illness widespread (the UK, Canada, Germany, Japan, and other nations have experienced a rapid increase in the past two decades), global consumption of soft drinks grew 2.9 per cent while milk consumption fell 3.0 per cent, prevalence of asthma rising rapidly (on average, by 50 per cent every decade).

Social features. Poverty trends, global effects of sprawling cities, teacher shortages in many regions, violence against women, gradual decline of voter participation.