Pizza and the future

Citation

Blackman, C. (2003), "Pizza and the future", Foresight, Vol. 5 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs.2003.27305aaa.001

Pizza and the future

Pizza and the future

Regular readers of foresight will be aware that a continuing theme covered in the journal is the question of how foresight can be more useful to governments and organizations. More specifically, the question that plagues futurists is how the findings of futures research can be better translated into decisions and actions. Recent articles in the journal have focused on identifying goals to make the world a better place while recognizing that there are considerable obstacles to implementation. In this issue we publish two very different articles which address the underlying causes of the difficulties in acting upon futures research.

The first, by Peter Hayward, does not look for explanation in terms of organizational design, planning, resourcing and skilling, but instead looks for reasons in terms of individuals' psychological capabilities. Hayward argues that "the organizational capability to consider future implications is synonymous with the individual capability of the people in that organization to do that very same thing. Without an individual capability to understand there is no organizational capability either."

According to Hayward, the ability of an organization to cope with the paradoxes raised by thinking about the future is determined by the ability of the individuals within the organization to manage complexity which, in turn, is a function of their cognitive processing and power. Applying theories of ego development in individuals which measure self-sense and the relationship with the external world, Hayward develops a model of the ability of individuals to comprehend and cope with the moral and ethical dilemmas presented by futures research – the "moral impediments" identified by the Millennium Project.

In a completely different article in its style and approach, Andy Hines seems to echo implicitly much of Hayward's analysis. Hines aims to provide guidelines for organizational futurists in building a foresight function inside an organization. His focus is large private companies but the principles apply elsewhere. Hines takes for granted that organizations are made up of individuals at stages of development that make it difficult for them to cope with the concept of futures research. Whereas Hayward describes impulsive, conformist and conscientious individuals, Hines refers to laggards and fence sitters with a smattering of true believers and bridge builders. Drawing on his experience of working as a futurist inside large multinational companies, Hines provides a guide of how best to play the system so that the futurist can stay true to his principles and influence the organization. Key to his strategy is knowing oneself (understanding what kind of futurist you are, your leadership style, what tools you use, how you spend your time, etc.), and knowing your audience. For Hines, crucially it also means a deep understanding of what guides you – what is futures research for?

Much of the time it seems that organizational futurists like Hines must employ a strategy akin to that of a terrorist, using stealth strategies to educate and convert the organization. Hayward uses different language, of course, describing the role of foresight in terms of broking and translating, bringing the outside in. For Hayward, the interest of futures research should not be in confirming what we know about, but should be directed instead towards expanding what we know with the ultimate aim being transformation to a new worldview. For Hines, this translates to saying no to being asked to describe the trends in pizza consumption; planting seeds through raising awareness and problem finding; the goal being to score with a big or "WOW" project.

If Hayward is correct, then perhaps the key role of foresight is educational, in raising awareness and in helping individuals to make the personal transition through stages of ego development.

Colin Blackman