FutureConsumer.Com: The Webolution of Shopping to 2010

Citation

Goldsmith, R.E. (2001), "FutureConsumer.Com: The Webolution of Shopping to 2010", Journal of Consumer Marketing, Vol. 18 No. 4, pp. 368-376. https://doi.org/10.1108/jcm.2001.18.4.368.4

Frank Feather is an e‐commerce consultant and futurist. Consequently, his books are about the future. In 1994 he published The Future Consumer, containing a description of the consumer of tomorrow. His key prediction in that book was that the mass market was fragmenting into many small segments of consumers and that, to succeed in this diverse marketplace, companies would have to tailor their strategies to provide products and services to the individual wants of these many markets. His current book, FutureConsumer.Com, is an update of those predictions focused on the Internet and the impact of the Internet on everyday life, especially its effects on consumer behavior. His main prediction is that, owing to the influence of the Internet, the market is completely fragmenting into segments of one and that, to survive, companies will have to develop effective e‐commerce strategies adapted to this new environment.

Feather forecasts rapid, vast growth in the Internet. Over the next ten years, he proclaims, the Web will transform all aspects of society: work, play, personal and family relationships, as well as shopping. For example, Part one, “The Webolution,” argues that half of North Americans will live a “Web lifestyle” in which an always‐on Internet will connect people with their homes, their automobiles, their appliances, their work, and with each other. Many people will work at home or in their cars, lessening the need to commute to a remote work site. Instead of television, newspapers, and magazines, people will receive their information and entertainment via a ubiquitous, wireless Web. Families will have more time and opportunity to interact as they surf together and share Web‐related activities.

Not only will people interact with each other, they will interact with their environment, in which virtually everything will be connected via the always‐on‐Web: “WWW (World Wide Web) will become MMM (Mobile Media Mode) as business users and consumers increasingly use mobile phones, not PCs, to interact online” (p. 47). Appliances will sense when food stocks need replenishing and order replacements to be delivered automatically to the home. Cars will call home, turning on appliances, setting room temperatures, filling the jacuzzi, and starting dinner. Even physical health will be automatically monitored and appropriate steps taken on your behalf. In the new Web world the mobile phone will replace the PC as the chief method of staying connected. People will use it for all aspects of communication, including managing finances, shopping, and personal identification. It will replace business and credit cards, cash, books, and personal organizers.

Feather embeds many of his forecasts in an historical context, comparing the evolution of the Internet to many other revolutions in communications, economics, and technology. In the “economics of surfer time and attention”, rapid expansion of the global online economy suggests that there is a pronounced first‐mover advantage, size is important as only a few very large businesses will dominate their respective categories, and the role of middlemen will be transformed; many will be eliminated, but others will survive in new forms. In contrast, the Web will enable large numbers of very small enterprises to thrive. Moreover, many “home‐based entrepreneurs” will appear to create vast markets of SOHO (small office/home office) businesses.

Part two, “Who will shop online,” is a useful survey of consumer Internet behavior. In terms of demographics, Feather summarizes five generations of shoppers and how their differences affect their online behavior. He also points out how multi‐cultural and global the Internet is becoming and discusses gender differences in e‐shopping. Psychographically, Web shoppers are distinct from their non‐Web‐using counterparts in their attitudes toward technology and the benefits they derive from shopping online. Perhaps more than demographic influences, the attitudes and lifestyles of Web shoppers shape their online behavior. Finally, Feather devotes a chapter to “Webographics,” or what consumers do online and why. He summarizes Web adoption rates and discusses several patterns of Web use that combine demographics, psychographics, and attitudes to distinguish several segments of e‐shoppers. A principal finding is that typically, online consumers pick only a few sites they add to their list of “favorites” or “bookmarks” and visit these repeatedly.

In a series of 12 chapters in Part three, “What they will buy,” the author describes the changes coming to the major online product categories: apparel and footwear, automobiles, books, education, entertainment and sports, expressions, financial services, groceries, health and beauty, homes and home improvement, newspapers, and mass merchandisers. Each of these chapters summarizes major trends and presents statistics describing online activity. The major companies in each category are discussed, and their strategies are compared and contrasted. Feather is quick to share his opinions of individual company Web sites, marketing programs, and their impact on traditional businesses. He forecasts future trends in each category and names those firms most likely to succeed and dominate. These are revealing discussions owing to the variety of e‐marketing and e‐commerce strategies described. There is a summary of total online sales projected to 2010 and of the top 50 Web sites that will make these sales. Several general prescriptions accounting for the success of the winners are provided. Not surprisingly, success in e‐commerce seems to depend on wide product selection, ease of site use, high quality products, prompt and accurate order fulfillment, competitive pricing, personalization, and good customer service.

FutureConsumer.Com concludes with five chapters organized in Part four, “e‐marketing strategy: from mall to ‘mallennium”’, devoted to overall strategic concerns. These chapters discuss the need to integrate e‐strategy into overall strategy for brick‐and‐mortar retailers: “Web strategy must drive the business strategy” (p. 236). A central argument is that the Web is transforming consumer behavior and, thus, business practice, outdating many firms that fail to adapt to the new communication media. Another theme is that consumers increasingly will want to do more of their own research and other buying‐related activity, perform many services for themselves, entailing less need for travel and real estate agents, bank tellers, insurance salespersons, stock brokers, etc. This transformation of the service industries has been underway for several years, and Feather predicts that it will only accelerate.

FutureConsumer.Com is written in a clear, journalistic style that presents a wealth of statistics in an easy‐to‐read manner. It contains many descriptions of e‐strategies, both good and bad. Feather is outspoken and forthright in his opinions. He may overstate the case, as when he claims “By 2010, the Internet will gobble up 31 percent of retail spending, leaving most brick‐and‐mortar retailers in rubble” (p. 15). As with any forecaster, it is hard to tell how many of the predictions will come true. Some readers will disagree with some conclusions, such as “… in any given business category, one or two players will come to dominate the market. Moreover, the digital race is almost over before it begins. Once a strong leader is established in a category, outside of a big misstep, it will build on its first‐mover advantage to gain momentum and amass an insurmountable position” (p. 63). Here it may be that careful, slow, methodical firms which gradually venture online may avoid the mistakes of first movers and gradually overtake them. One firm he praises, Furniture.com, has recently declared bankruptcy.

There is a breathless, excited quality to the book that may detract from its appeal for some readers. The novelty and scope of its coverage may stimulate others. Although seemingly not for class‐room use, FutureConsumer.com appears to be written for anyone curious about the impact of the Internet on consumer behavior. It presents a wealth of information in this regard. Additional information is available from the associated Web site, www.Future‐Consumer.com, which also acts as the home page for Feather’s consultancy. Those who find the book most useful will be the intended audience of marketing managers as well as Internet‐oriented consumer researchers seeking background information and testable propositions for empirical studies.