The optimist's self-help guide to the future

Citation

Millett, S. (2007), "The optimist's self-help guide to the future", Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 35 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/sl.2007.26135aae.001

The optimist's self-help guide to the future

The optimist's self-help guide to the future

Turning the Future into Revenue: What Business and Individuals Need to Know to Shape Their Futures

Glen HiemstraWiley, 2006

Glen Hiemstra is the prophet of preferred future planning and his new book, Turning the Future into Revenue, read on a superficial level, is a hymn to eternal optimism. His premise is that thinking about the future can change the present as well as the future. His model for achieving a preferred future sounds like a line from Star Trek: “change the future and the present will follow.” He really means, if managers think about how to make the future more desirable they will make better decisions in the present. For strategists, his book is worth reading because it provides an alternative thought process to classic strategic planning.

From his experience as a consultant to corporations, the author has developed the concept that the realization of possible futures leads to the calculation of probable futures, which in turn leads to the visualization of preferred futures. The next, and crucial, step is to create a viable plan to enable the corporation to arrive at the preferred future. Along the way, corporations can develop a “first win action” that will set in motion the plan to achieve the preferred future. It all seems perfectly attainable, except that his methodology sounds more than a little like a corporate corollary to Norman Vincent Peale’s The Power of Positive Thinking. So how does his system work?

Hiemstra makes four assumptions about thinking about the future:

1. 1.

   The future can be created, so managers do have choices.

2. 2.

   The future is knowable to the extent that managers learn from trends and observable discontinuities.

3. 3.

   The future is unpredictable, so you need values to carry you through the turmoil of uncertainty.

4. 4.

   The future creates the present. That is, the vision of the preferred future changes the present. “A vision,” Hiemstra tells us, “is nothing more than a description of a preferred future … ”

Hiemstra clearly differentiates between futuring and visioning. The former is the disciplined and systematic approach to thinking about future trends, events, and developments in your external environment, such as changing customers, competitors, technologies, regulations, etc. The latter is the leveraging of assets and competencies to achieve goals. He suggests that this is just as true for individuals as it is for corporations.

Cynics might point out that some individuals and corporations have more control over their environments than others. And his book doesn’t offer much in the way or research or testing. Yet Hiemstra is very correct in asserting that most managers are too reactive to sudden discontinuities and less proactive toward the future than they should be. I’m sure that Hiemstra will be dismissed as naïve by many experienced managers who will equate preferred future planning with plain old wishful thinking.

Nonetheless, Hiemstra’s recommended method makes considerable sense. He suggests that the following steps replace conventional strategic planning:

1. 1.

   Assess the present. What is the current customer base and business model? What appears to work and not work well? His diagnostics start the process of internal changes.

2. 2.

   Explore the future. He strongly advocates external environmental scanning, including the routine monitoring of trends in customer behavior, market mechanics, new technologies, competitors, regulations, politics and policies, etc. Adaptive companies are also learning companies; they watch carefully for emerging opportunities and respond quickly, not just to demand, but to new opportunities. In some cases they prepare to serve customer needs before customers are fully aware of what they require. In addition to trends monitoring, Hiemstra urges the use of scenario planning to develop possible, probable, and preferred futures.

3. 3.

   Evaluate the possible. It is not enough to monitor trends; managers also have to anticipate discontinuities as well. What resources would be required to make changes? What investments and changes in industry structure are possible? This step bridges the gap between conditions as they are and are likely to be as contrasted with conditions as they should be in a desirable future. To give managers a head start on finding future prospects, Hiemstra identifies a number of potential opportunities that will likely be created by the confluence of aging populations, declining populations, and innovative technologies in energy, materials, biology, and information technologies.

4. 4.

   Visualize the preferred. This is the visioning step based on big ambitions and a strong commitment to making the preferred future happen. Bold visions must extend at least 20 years if not longer into the future. Managers should begin with the vision of the preferred future and work backward to the present to identify key strategies and investments.

5. 5.

   Achieve the preferred. Once the vision is formed, managers must create strategies and follow up with the appropriate actions to make them happen.

Hiemstra’s book will inspire those who can visualize great futures, and it may stimulate remarkable accomplishments by those who have the will and skill to plan for and implement programs to achieve the futures they envision. It certainly is a step beyond customary business planning. And even a cynic has to admit that great dreams can be expected to fail–because failure, not success, is the norm of business. However, in the attempt to reach for the stars some managers will climb to new heights.

Steve MillettLeader of Technology Foresight at Social Technologies LLC of Washington, DC (smillett@columbus.rr.com). Based in Columbus, Ohio, he is co-author of The Manager’s Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods (Battelle Press, 1991) and a Strategy & Leadership Contributing Editor.