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Home > Journal of Property Valuation and Investment > Volume 16 issue 1 > An comparative evaluation of office rent prediction models
Journal of Property Valuation and Investment
ISSN: 0960-2712
Currently published as: Journal of Property Investment & Finance
Incorporates: Journal of Property Finance
Online from: 1983
Subject Area: Built Environment
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An comparative evaluation of office rent prediction models
| Title: | An comparative evaluation of office rent prediction models |
|---|---|
| Author(s): | Russell Chaplin, (Assistant lecturer, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK) |
| Citation: | Russell Chaplin, (1998) "An comparative evaluation of office rent prediction models", Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 16 Iss: 1, pp.21 - 37 |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, Modelling, Predicting, Rent |
| Article type: | Research Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1108/14635789810205074 (Permanent URL) |
| Publisher: | MCB UP Ltd |
| Abstract: | Commercial property is regarded by many as functioning in a relatively inefficient market, so that opportunities exist to earn abnormal gains through the exploitation of information which is not reflected in prices. Property portfolio managers therefore rely to some extent on predictions or forecasts of future commercial property market performance as a tool to aid investment decisions. This paper seeks to conduct an ex post comparative evaluation exercise for “consensus” office rent models in the UK, common explanatory variables being derived from a literature review and from a survey of practitioners’ operational models. Three alternative valuation based rent indices are used as the dependent variables. Models are selected and ranked according to historic fit and used to predict five years ahead given perfect foresight. The paper finds that the best fitting models are not the best predicting models. Generally there is no relationship between the predictive rank of a model and the fit rank of a model |
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