Presidential election scenarios

Abstract

Purpose

The aim is to demonstrate the necessity of a scenario approach to decision making where non‐experts are forced to choose between expert opinions about which they cannot possibly form their own expert opinion.

Design/methodology/approach

This is an opinion column.

Findings

The 2012 presidential election is almost sure to result in more of an austerity approach to the economy – and the level of that austerity may actually be greater under a re‐elected Obama than under a new President Romney.

Practical implications

Decision makers and strategists should be prepared for more of an austerity approach to economic policy, no matter who is elected in November.

Social implications

Few people are thinking through the actual implications of this election. A scenario analysis makes it fairly clear that the range of plausible policy outcomes is far narrower than is commonly believed.

Originality

The article gives a possibly unique outlook on the 2012 presidential election.

Citation

Marren, P. (2012), "Presidential election scenarios", Journal of Business Strategy, Vol. 33 No. 5, pp. 59-61. https://doi.org/10.1108/02756661211282803