Rainfall and temperature scenario for Bangladesh using 20 km mesh AGCM
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
ISSN: 1756-8692
Article publication date: 24 February 2012
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) global 20-km mesh Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), called MRI-AGCM, to simulate rainfall and mean surface air temperature. Through calibration and validation the MRI-AGCM was adapted for Bangladesh for generating rainfall and temperature scenarios.
Design/methodology/approach
The model generated rainfall was calibrated with ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period of 1979-2006. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data are also used for understanding of the model performance. Better performance of MRI-AGCM obtained through validation process increased confidence in utilizing it in the future rainfall projection for Bangladesh.
Findings
Rainfall and mean surface air temperature projection for Bangladesh is experimentally obtained for the period of 2075-2099. This work finds that the MRI-AGCM simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application purpose. However, after validation and calibration, acceptable performance is obtained in estimating annual rainfall and mean surface air temperature in Bangladesh.
Originality/value
Change of rainfall is projected about 0.64 percent in monsoon season (JJAS), 1.90 percent in post-monsoon season (ON) and 13.46 percent in Winter season (DJF) during the period of 2075-2099. Similarly, change of mean surface air temperature is projected about 2.5 degrees Celsius for the same period.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The first and second authors are grateful to JICA Bangladesh for selecting for the training course on “Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia-Climate Change Analysis” JFY 2008, project number: 0884131. The first and second authors are also grateful to the Meteorological Research Institute for providing data of high resolution (20 km) AGCM for the study. The Bangladesh Meteorological department is acknowledged for providing observational data.
Citation
Mizanur Rahman, M., Ferdousi, N., Sato, Y., Kusunoki, S. and Kitoh, A. (2012), "Rainfall and temperature scenario for Bangladesh using 20 km mesh AGCM", International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 4 No. 1, pp. 66-80. https://doi.org/10.1108/17568691211200227
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2012, Emerald Group Publishing Limited