Analysis and forecast of Tianjin’s industrial energy consumption

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the present situation of Tianjin industrial energy consumption carbon emissions and put forward constructive suggestions for future energy-saving emission reduction work.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the energy consumption data form the Tianjin’s Industrial Energy Efficiency Guide (TJBS, 2009-2013) and Tianjin’s Statistical Yearbook (NBS, 2006-2012), some models were able to predict the future with a high degree of accuracy.

Findings

With an average error of 3.06 per cent for the logistic regression model and an average error of 2.03 per cent for the gray model, the R2 for the energy elasticity model is 0.99158. It also indicated that between 2008 and 2012, the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value decreased by approximately 33.61 per cent. These results show that energy-saving efforts and the optimization of the industrial structure have increased the energy efficiency of Tianjin.

Originality/value

The authors think that their contribution refers to a combination between methodology of forecasting and industrial energy consumption.

Citation

Zhu, H., Ge, X., Wang, Y. and Ding, Z. (2017), "Analysis and forecast of Tianjin’s industrial energy consumption", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. 11 No. 1, pp. 46-64. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-06-2015-0003