Ecuador referendum raises Noboa re-election doubts

Significance

Noboa’s order earlier this month to remove former Vice-President Jorge Glas (2013-17) forcibly from Mexico’s Quito embassy intensified opposition to his government from the leftist opposition and social movements ahead of the referendum. The mixed results raise questions over Noboa’s ability to win re-election next year.

Impacts

• International investors will be concerned by the strong rejection of Noboa’s economic reforms.
• Permitting the extradition of Ecuadorans will be well received by overseas governments, especially Washington.
• The referendum results suggest the political climate will become increasingly polarised as next year’s presidential elections approach.