Catalan election could test Spanish stability

Significance

The Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC) -- which is affiliated with Spain’s ruling Socialist Party -- holds a strong lead in the polls over the other parties. The outcome could have implications for Spain’s government, as it depends on Catalonia’s pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Together with Catalonia (JxCat) for support.

Impacts

• Defeat for JxCat would most likely result in the departure of its exiled leader, Carles Puidgemont.
• Any early Spanish election, triggered by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's possible resignation, would likely result in a right-wing victory.
• The prospect of Catalan independence remains a long way away.