Citation
Foley, P. and Jayawardhena, C. (1999), "Internet editorial", European Business Review, Vol. 99 No. 2. https://doi.org/10.1108/ebr.1999.05499bag.001
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 1999, MCB UP Limited
Internet editorial
Internet data sources and surveys
Some amazing statistics have been put forward for the growth of the Internet and its potential for trade. Hundreds of analysts, research companies, and gurus speculate on the size of the Internet but there is no single place where these estimates and predictions are interpreted, compared and reviewed. Indeed, eMarketer has described the collection and analysis of Internet data as "statistical hell".
Collection of Internet data is very difficult. The only method to investigate Internet growth is to analyse surrogate statistics. The most popular surrogate is the number of Internet hosts. Many estimates of the number of Internet users and the volume of Internet trade are partially derived from this source.
Internet hosts
An "Internet host" is an individual computer connected directly to the Internet. Every computer connected directly to the Internet is assigned a distinct Internet Protocol (IP) address. This would suggest that one could take a census of hosts relatively easily. But there is no single authority that has the jurisdiction or the resources to carry out this task. Nonetheless, some organisations, such as General Magic, Network Wizards and the Information Society have attempted to find the number of hosts. They have collected information over several years and their Web sites present data in numerical and graphical form. The overall consensus is that the number of Internet host computers has grown from approximately 2 million in 1993 to 36.74 million in July 1998.
Even the seemingly simple task of contacting every host computer is fraught with difficulties. The primary difficulty for analysts is that when some computers are contacted they do not respond, so it is impossible to be sure whether they are "dead" or "alive". Hence, like most statistics concerning the Internet and World Wide Web, the number of hosts must be regarded with some caution.
Web sites
The growth of the Universal Resource Locators (URLs) on the World Wide Web has exceeded the growth of Internet hosts. The number of URLs or Web sites (not pages since a Web site can have many pages) is a good indicator of the growth of information available on the World Wide Web. The problems of counting the number of URLs are similar to those associated with Internet host computers. Many URLs have been created that do not carry information (they have not been "born") and many sit redundantly on computers (probably "dead", but occasionally still useful). Netnames and the Information Society provide estimates for the number of URLs. The first URLs were created in 1993. It is estimated that by December 1998 there were approximately 5 million Web sites containing more than 66 million pages of information.
Internet users
The number of people using the Internet is a popular topic for commercial organisations and analysts, primarily because it represents the potential market for electronic commerce. Calculating the number of users is not easy. Many groups appear to extrapolate or produce estimates from data about Internet hosts, the number of users served by Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and other figures, many of which are themselves estimates. A complementary approach is the use of household or business surveys of Internet use. Problems arise in comparing survey results because response rates, survey sizes and definitions of what constitutes Internet use vary.
With businesses such as Hewlett Packard spending US$4 million a year on market research it is not surprising that many forecasters have moved into the lucrative area of Internet predictions. Many reports, for even the most basic estimates and forecasts, from organisations such as Forrester, Jupiter Communications, IDC and eMarketer cost more than US$ 2,000. This cost can be prohibitive for many who would like to read the reports. But these companies' Web sites often provide access to press releases which give the basic details of their reports. Alternatively, Nua (a research group based in Ireland) and the International Electronic Commerce Research Centre (IECRC) at De Montfort University provide an overview and analysis of all recent studies. Nua estimated that in December 1998 there were 151 million people online. The IECRC review of more than 40 published studies suggests that the number of Internet users is lower, at just over 100 million.
Interestingly, IECRC research shows that early forecasts, before 1997, made some of the highest predictions about future Internet use. A review of published reports over time shows that forecasts of Internet use in 2000 and beyond have been continually revised down. During 1998, forecasts began to converge. On average the leading Internet forecasting organisations predict 180 million Internet users in 2000. However, it is unknown whether this convergence is the result of more sophisticated techniques or simply a better understanding of other organisations' predictions and therefore a desire to conform.
Internet trade
Predictions of the level of Internet trade are even more difficult to calculate than those for Internet connectivity. It is hard enough to estimate how many people are using the Internet, let alone what they are doing when they are using it. Nonetheless, the IECRC has recorded almost twice as many reports about Internet trade as there are about the number of users.
Unlike Internet user predictions, reports on Internet trade have continually been revised upwards in recent years. Convergence in Internet trade forecasts is also evident, particularly amongst forecasts made in 1998. Estimates suggest that approximately US$33 billion of trade were completed in 1998. Surveys published in 1998 estimated (on average) that Internet trade volume would increase to US$261 billion in 2000 and rise further to US$358 billion in 2002.
Few studies distinguish between the volume of business to business, and business to consumer (or online shopping) trade. This is important because many people have interpreted Internet trade estimates as being online shopping. Most surveys, which provide an interpretation, suggest online shopping (business to consumer trade) is currently less than 10 per cent of total Internet trade.
In 1996, several wild forecasts were put forward which estimated that the number of Internet users in 2000 would reach one billion. Internet forecasts are now starting to converge and a consensus is beginning to emerge about the future rate of growth. If these recent reports and forecasts predictions are correct it is probable that nearly 400 new users have joined the Internet in the five minutes it might have taken you to read this article.
The following list shows a selective review of World Wide Web sites which provide Internet statistics. Dynamic links to these pages can be found at the De Montfort University International Electronic Commerce Research Centre: http://www.dmu.ac.uk/ln/ecommerce/ebr2.htm
Internet host site surveys
General Magic
Graphical presentation of past and future growth in Internet host and domain characteristics
http://www/genmagic.com/internet/trends
Hobbes Internet timeline
History of the Internet from 1957 and updated statistics on hosts, domains and WWW sites
http://info.isoc.org/zakon/internet/History/HIT. html
Network Wizards
Host and domain surveys completed twice yearly (since January 1995) providing details of user type and geographical distribution
http://www.nw.com/zone/www/top.html
Web site surveys
Hobbes Internet timeline
History of the Internet from 1957 and updated statistics on host, domains and WWW sites
http://info.isoc.org/zakon/internet/History/HIT. html
Netcraft Web server surveys
Monthly survey of sites and Web server software usage
http://www.netcraft.com/survey
NetNames
A Domain Name registry which constantly updates the number of registered domains and provides a geographical overview of site distribution
Internet use and Internet trade surveys
eMarketer
A US company which provides access to Internet statistics and news. Press release available
http://www.emarketer.com/welcome.html
Forrester Research
An independent US research firm which investigates Internet growth and impact. Press releases available
IDC
The International Data Corporation claims to be the World's leading IT media and research company. Press releases available
International Electronic Commerce Research Centre (IECRC)
A research centre at De Montfort University which provides an overview and analysis of Internet surveys and forecasts
http://www.dmu.ac.uk/In/ecommerce/welc.htm
JupiterCommunications
A US media research firm which focuses on the Internet. Press releases available
Nua Ltd Internet surveys
Reviews of published Internet surveys from sources throughout the world. Updated daily.
http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi
Paul Foley and Chanaka Jayawardhena